| Episode: | E109 |
| Show Title: | A Look Back On 2021 & Looking Forward To 2022 |
| Cast: | Aaron Horne, Patrick Berry & John McGregor |
| Guests: | – |
| Show Length: | 25 minutes 24 seconds |
Patrick: I think my main advice is don’t give up. I think so many people get disheartened and especially if they tried through 2021 to buy a house, they’re probably at that point where they don’t think it’s possible. I honestly think don’t give up; I think you’re going to see some opportunities arise over the next sort of six months.
[intro music]
Going once… going twice… SOLD! You’re listening to the Property Pod!
Aaron: All right, guys. Welcome back to The Property Pod for 2022. I’m your host, Aaron Horne, and I’m joined, as always, by the two team members at the desk: John McGregor and Patrick Berry. Welcome back to the studio, boys!
John: Hey, gentlemen! I’m not sure about you but I’m struggling already to write 2022 on all the different documents that’s still stuck in 2021 at the moment.
Aaron: Oh, man. Are you just writing lots of documents at the moment?
John: All the time. [laughter]
Aaron: Yeah, just signing deals, getting them done.
Aaron: I am… I’m enjoying writing. It’s so much easier–you just kind of keep rolling the circular motion… [John demonstrates]
John: That makes sense.
Patrick: I’m just excited to be back in the studio!
John: Yeah, it’s been ages.
Patrick: It’s been ages for me.
Aaron: It has, mate. Yes and lots of people have been asking how was your trip? We kind of didn’t get a chance to catch back up before you got back; you only kind of got back at the end and we do thank Andrew Leggett for coming in and helping us out over the period. He did a tough job filling your seat.
Patrick: This feels weird actually. [laughter]
Aaron: Yeah, but no. Give us a quick rundown of your trip and your time away and everything that happened. I know a few people were asking about it.
Patrick: Yeah, it was awesome. We actually did a caravan trip and had it all the way up to Alice Springs so up through Adelaide into Northern territory… on the way, it was stunning.
Aaron: So, you took the kids along with you as well which is always kind of a nerve-wracking experience; it’s kind of “we’re going to survive this trip.” It seems like you came back stronger than ever.
Patrick: That’s pretty good and obviously, traveling at this time is different. So, a few challenges around: border controls and access points and things like that. But following the rules, we’re allowed to do what we want to do. Caravan parks were pretty empty as a result but yeah, it was enjoyable.
John: I suppose it didn’t have the same amount of people that you could banter with, I suppose, was rolled on but…
Patrick: No, well some of the caravan parks we went to hold like three to four hundred vans and there were eight to ten of us in the entire site. They’re just like giant ghost towns.
John: [laughter] Well, I suppose if you just corral it like an old school cabin, you know, so that’d kind of work.
Patrick: Look, some of the caravan parks, the reception says on the door “open till five o’clock”, you’d get there at four and notice that there, you ring them up: “Oh, just drive in the park anywhere. Pay me the next day or so when you feel like coming down.” All right. That’s so relaxing.
John: Yeah, that’s cool.
Aaron: Did you say something like there’s a monopoly on the accommodation near Uluru? Like it’s in like, it’s almost like you get your five stars, you get your four stars, you get three but it’s all by one company.
Patrick: Yeah, so it’s like a little downtown village. They’ve got like an IGA Petrol station and then it branches out into these five different hotels but they’re all actually owned by the same company.
John: Yeah right. It’s in my head then I just imagine that like they’ve got their own like there’s a sheriff of that small town.
Patrick: Well, there’s a police station, a fire station here.
John: Oh really? [laughter] Owned by the state company?
Patrick: Probably. [laughter]
John: A little west world.
Aaron: But again, you were saying while you were there like it’s kind of there’s signs saying make sure you get here early because there’s going to be so many people, if you want to get a good spot to see sunset etc. You basically had the rock to yourself and yeah.
Patrick: Pretty much. We rode around it on our bikes and I think we met two people the whole way around it. Just nobody there.
Aaron: Yeah, it’s amazing. I guess it’s one of those things where the world is still in a kind of a state of flux and we don’t really know what’s going on at the moment but I think…
Patrick: Well, Uluru realized very heavily on international tourists too because the amount of signs as you drive in that are in all these different languages like just on the highway. And signs reminding you of simple things like what side of the road we drive on in Australia and there’s just no because none of those international tourists are here, it was just empty.
Aaron: Well, it’s so like such long straight roads. Imagine, you kind of just happened to find yourself on the wrong side of the road because you’re just kind of like, “I haven’t seen a car for like 500 kilometers”
Patrick: You do not realize how big it is until you drive for 400 kilometers and don’t see a soul [laughter] and the only thing that you’re driving to is the next Petrol station [laughter] like it’s literally…
John: …nothing, just nothing.
Aaron: Yeah no, you had a great time. You obviously made it back safe and sound, it’s good to have you back on deck just in time for the silly season. We kind of all got together and I guess you made it back just as the mask mandate kind of kicked in and we ended up making our way out for our Christmas drinks which is a little different to it had been in the previous year, but it was great to celebrate and celebrate an amazing year at 4one4!
Patrick: And that’s it. 2021 for the real estate market in Tassie was just ridiculous. I think Niño sums it up best by describing it as the “golden year” in Australian real estate if you own a property.
John: Oh, can you imagine how many people who donated a property but like when are you talking about the golden year, but I mean just in terms of relative house growth, we wanted to save for Tassie like 25 to 30% or something…
Patrick: 27.5% growth rate in the last 12 months making it the hottest capital city in Australia [John agrees] and you know, to think, look I remember when I started real estate, Hobart was just that sleepy little town no one cared. Sydney and Melbourne were going off and now, to know that hybrid is outperforming Sydney by almost three percent in price growth is just unbelievable.
John: And look, one thing that I was reading an article just, I suppose, before this morning and I think was another agent commented not on the fact that now, all us locals just look at the prices like yep we’ve sort of caught up with the rest of the country now it kind of makes sense. And I remember when we flew across to Adelaide and along Ganeal and you had these waterfront properties, looking at prices, I’m like, “oh million, 1.5”. I’m thinking, “oh yeah, yeah that seems affordable.” Whereas, if at the same location, five to eight years ago, I suppose, where they’re looking at a million bucks like, “oh my god, how does anyone ever buy these things” but we’re just used to seeing those numbers from as a local now. It’s crazy.
Patrick: On a side note, that is a great town in Adelaide. That’s where I spent a week at the end of my holiday in the Caravan park down there–really stunning there.
Aaron: I think, did you say you said off we had to move somewhere else, it ended up being yeah…
Patrick: That’s right, West Beach Parks or Grinnell, both awesome. They’re so good down there.
Aaron: Oh there you go. Shout out to the crew in Grinnell. If there’s anybody in Grinnell listening to the podcast, we’d love to hear from you and yeah, we’d be very surprised if you’re listening [laughter] but we’re very glad that you are and Pat likes what you got. I thought before we kind of jumped into anything that’s going on in 2022, kind of predictions of what this year might look like, we could maybe discuss just kind of the year that 4one4 Property Co had. It was kind of a year of growth–it was “golden year” for real estate as Niño said but it’s also a golden year here. We’ve kind of doubled in size, there seems to be some things happening, I just wondered if you had some stats there, Pat, that you wanted to kind of let the people out there know, kind of what our year was like and then maybe what we’re focusing on.
Patrick: Yeah, it was definitely a crazy year in 2021 like we really leveled up not just from selling but just from growth in the business as well which I guess comes as a direct result from being so active. But you know, just from a numbers perspective, like our average sale price now in the market that we work in is $488,000 [Aaron agrees] and people need to put that into context. We work Moonah out to Bagdad, outer suburb areas. So, when you start looking at suburbs like Bridgewater and Gagebrook and those areas to still have an average suburb price of $488,000, that just showcases how much prices have increased in the area.
John: And I remember, compared that to when we were doing it in our old business as well, with our sale price of about $350,000 to $400,000, so that’s nearly 30 to 50% in some ways of what’s just happened just on a daily basis.
Patrick: Yeah, and then to flow on from that, in 2021, we actually sold 192 properties which, you know, it doesn’t sound like… to me, it sounds like a big number because it is, but some other agencies, they would obviously sell a lot more but we haven’t got a huge team, so for our team to generate that much business in 12 months, it’s just astounding they did a fantastic job.
Aaron: And do you have kind of right you’ve mention a few of the suburbs there, but you have a rundown of our most active suburbs, the places we sold the most in…
Patrick: Yeah, definitely. So, the suburb that topped the list for us is Glenorchy, ,where our main office is located. So, Glenorchy was a real top performer for us, so it seems that we’ve been able to establish ourselves relatively well here. Claremont, surprisingly, was in second place. It’s another outer suburb that’s sort of growing in size and popularity at the moment; it’s getting really good price growth, got a really good commercial district as well. Then we flow into Brighton which we’ve done a lot of work in over the years, a lot of new buildings being built out there. Bagdad which was the one that surprised me, John, [laughter] I did not think that would be in our top 10 but apparently, we own Bagdad…
Aaron: I think if you bring in a superstar real estate agent like Suz…
Patrick: And then Bridgewater which obviously, is an area that we do a huge amount of work in. So there are our top five suburbs where we did the majority of our work. [John agrees]
Aaron: One of the ones in Bridgewater is that’s a place where you do a fair bit, Pat, with the Centacare Evolve group and that’s kind of helping first home buyers get into properties. I know we’ve talked about it before, can you quickly just kind of go into that and how they’re helping out first home buyers which is it’s a tricky market for first-time buyers?
Patrick: Look, 2021 was probably the worst year ever if you’re a first-time buyer trying to get into the market. Because every month, the price is increasing so rapidly, but you can never get that deposit saved quick enough before the prices have shifted again [John agrees] so, I take my hat off to anyone that was a first home buyer last year and was able to buy a property and get into the market because they did well. Not only were they successful enough in buying a house, they were persistent enough to continue trying because most people would have attempted multiple offers before they were successful.
Aaron: Yeah, most definitely.
Patrick: Yeah, so when we work with companies like Centacare who built a lot of brand new homes, they’re very focused on only selling their stock to first-time buyers or owner occupiers which is a huge help because the investor market pool in Tasmania, especially the Hobart area in the suburbs we work, is quite high. It would be a fairly large percentage, wouldn’t it, John?
John: It’s not weighted, it goes about 30% buying 30% fully-owned, and 30% investors, generally speaking. But then in Bridgewater and Herdsmans Cove, in those areas, it ends up moving up to sort of 50-60 percent in investors. So, to be able to start to shift that number to home ownership is a really positive trend.
Patrick: And it’s really awesome that companies like Centacare that we work with, are actually helping first home buyers get into the marketplace. [John agrees] The downfall of that is that there are so many first-time buyers wanting to crack in it but they are still fighting against each other and still pushing those prices north but it’s just, unfortunately, there’s just not enough stock at the moment to cover the demand.
John: But I think where the… even I suppose, looking forward to this year in the coming years, where the current government has announced. I think it’s a huge amount of money towards public housing but I think that’s where the ties with Centacare in those companies don’t because they’re obviously securing the land, releasing it and building it.
So, that’s where the funds will go eventually yeah.
Patrick: Yeah, but you know, the Sales Team did an amazing job but the Rental Team was pretty impressive as well. We’re now up over 830 rental properties in our books…
Aaron: That’s just hard to fathom. Like our team of property managers have 800 and over 830 properties that they’re working on every day and ensuring that there’s that many happy…
Patrick: You know, well that’s 1600 people they’re dealing with on a yearly basis…
Aaron: When you think vendor, owner and tenant…
Patrick: And then I sit there and watch the girls and I’ll say, “oh the tenants of 1 Smith Street called up” “oh, Mark and Mary” I’m like, “how do you, guys, remember all their names?” They’re dealing with so many people but they seem to do such a good job at remembering them. And they onboarded over 100 new rentals last year. Like I think that’s a two-fold there: it’s great that they were able to generate so much new business but it also shows how many new rental properties are coming into the marketplace as well from investors buying because there’s a lot of new time investors that are buying properties off our sales team like yourself, John, [John agrees] and it’s really great to see that they are entrusting us to then manage the properties for them.
John: Well and that on two fronts, you’ve got the really low interest rates at the moment with a significant growth in relative capital, so people, obviously, all of a sudden have greater access to money which is enabling them obviously, to secure maybe their first investment property as well. So, it works hand in hand on that basis.
Patrick: So, you know, they’ve smashed goals as well.
Aaron: And a big shout out to our superstar BDM, Jo Strange, who has kind of stepped into that role of finding some of those new properties and just absolutely killing it with building relationships with heaps of people across the gamut and it’s even going along the photo shoots and seeing her interacting with people like, no wonder, they entrust their biggest asset with her and with us. She’s so personable and so good at kind of yeah, making you feel at home with yeah…
Patrick: Speaking of new staff members, last year, we actually onboarded 12 staff members over 2021.
Aaron: When we like only a team of 12 [laughter] like Friday it feels like that’s like doubling the entire stock.
John: It is. That’s crazy!
Patrick: So 12 staff, we’ve onboarded 45 blog posts last year–highlighting the market, the community, our team, so that’s a massive hats off to you as well as Niño. You guys just smashed it with the blog posts and the information that you put out there to help educate people.
Aaron: I actually really really love kind of coming up with the ideas and then passing them along to Niño and having them come together and just being like, “oh man, I feel like this is something that’s really like a hot button,” like even just those new scooters, the e-scooters, the other day just been like, “Hey, mate. Do you reckon we could chuck something together with this?” Come up with this absolutely cracking article just about kind of how they’re going to talk with you about how you experienced them on their first weekend and you’ve had a crack out of them in Adelaide. The problem was I didn’t realize that you’re supposed to not ride between the two pubs [laughter] so I’ve learnt my mistake and I won’t be doing that again. Aaron informs me that that’s a no-no.
Aaron: That is a no-no.
Patrick: So, that’s impressive. Some people might not know, we actually launched our own magazine last year which was a huge undertaking by Aaron and Niño and so we’re excited to continue that on moving forward next year.
Aaron: And just for anyone out there that doesn’t know, it gets its name from this very show. [John: It does.] We’ve stripped the property from it and we just call it pod, yeah magazine, but yeah, really a good read and some really good feedback on that as well.
Patrick: Yeah and the podcast put out 40 new episodes last year, so it was a huge month from a marketing team perspective. Yeah and it’s just amazing how all of this content we put out there, which I think is what drives the team to be able to generate the leads and opportunities they do.
John: Oh 100%! And I guess it is fun to be, like the whole creative process now, so I think we’ve got… All of us have the capacity with the right amount of staff, with all the hair brained ideas that we all come up with consistently, we’ve actually got the resources to be able to move ahead and actually make it happen.
Patrick: Yeah, so look, 2021 was awesome. I’m excited to see where we go with 2022, so I guess that’s the big crystal ball: what’s happening next year?
Aaron: Well, what is happening like I know we’ve spoken with–actually just before we
started recording,received an email from our boy, Simon Presley out there, happy new year to him but basically, like 22 things to look out for in 2022 a nice little number alliteration there. [laughter] I was only listening to a ridiculous podcast before about remembering that Jim Carrey movie, The Number 23?
John: Yes yes.
Aaron: Horrible movie. And they are ripping it to shreds on the podcast I’m listening to [laughter]
so next year, look out, it could be some…
John: Jim Carrey’s career is going to take a real turn next year.
Aaron: Oh yeah, the number 22, 2022, I got lost there. [laughter]
John: Well I was chatting with my friend about what we’re going to talk about this morning and straight away, he said, “oh look and now you see the articles Melbourne, Hobart market crashing, Sydney market crashing,” he’s like, “well no, it’s not.” I think we’re, I mean, even when or what’s going to happen over this year, again, going back to people smarter than us, but obviously, the big four banks, all their economic projections etc were all wrong 12 months ago, but they’re saying well there’s still obviously going to be some real and nominal growth, maybe five to seven percent, whatever that means. But practically speaking, where we just had following on from like three, four, or five huge years and then even the last four months of accelerated transactions, more properties selling as quickly as they possibly can. Fair enough, it’s people have run out of steam like there’s obviously a limitation of how much people can borrow, their capacities, but does that mean all of a sudden that it hits the peak and then does it nose dive like dot com bubble?
Patrick: I don’t know. The crazy thing, though, five to seven percent doesn’t sound impressive when you quote numbers like 27 last year but that’s still potentially on some properties, you know, 50, 60, $80 000 in growth. [John: 100 percent] which over a 12-month period is still ridiculous numbers.
John: What would you said that one of the lowest, like our most affordable house that we sold last year, like $300 000 or something?
Patrick: Yeah, I think we didn’t have much time under that.
John: So yeah, so that’s like… so even five to ten percent and that’s another fifteen to thirty thousand dollars, so it’s not just a small, again, and then it’s like, “oh jesus, can you?” That same problem goes again if someone’s trying to save a deposit, all of a sudden having an extra thirty thousand dollars, you know it’s not going to happen for most people so again, it’s not real positive news if you’re trying to get into the market but…
Patrick: Yeah, I think we’ll see an influx of properties coming to market this year. I think people will want to cash in on the price bubble before it potentially bursts, if it bursts. Whether or not that helps ease the pressure when people try to buy and that’s what brings the prices back, I guess we’ll see, but you know, Simon, I’m pretty confident last time we had him on, he doesn’t believe it’s happening anytime soon just because the stock level is so…
Aaron: No, a few people were asking me over the break and I’m like, “you’re asking the wrong guy, I take the photos, I don’t do any of that.”
Patrick: Come on, you’re working in real estate.
Aaron: I work in real estate but that’s the thing they say like, “what do you think is going to happen?” I’m like, “man, I’m not dealing with the numbers or anything.” I’m like, “oh yeah, I took a photo of a place that looked nice.” [laughter]
Patrick: You’re selling yourself short. You deal with numbers all the time, sometimes it’s five photos, sometimes it’s eight photos. [laughter] That’s lots of numbers.
Aaron: But yeah, I would say, you know, we’re talking to this guy who we greatly trust and he’s saying there could still be another three years before we see any change and it’s still growing and it’s funny I was yeah looking at this price prediction thing here and all the big four banks are saying, yeah probably rising five percent this year but then next year it’ll definitely drop, but it’s like, where are they pulling that from?
John: There’s just nothing. Yeah, sure that seems to make sense.
Patrick: People are arguing that Omicron is the reason why we’ll see a drop this year because Tasmania now has COVID, but you know, 12 or 18 months ago, everyone said Coronavirus was going to kill the market and that did the absolute opposite. So, you know, is it going to make a difference? Probably not. People still need to buy and sell. People are starting to just live their life and deal with it, so I don’t think a virus is going to have any effect on the marketplace at the moment.
John: No, I know, I guess that there was a comment on there as well about what areas will benefit greater again and yeah again, probably those regional centers where people again are still reassessing what they really want out of their lives and do they need to be in big cities if challenges occur, now there’s a bit of breathing space, a bit more freedom is continuing to move ahead there, we’ll go all right. Well, just in case this ever happens again, let’s just position ourselves to be in a better situation, so we’re not stuck like we were last time.
Aaron: Yeah, I guess it’s saying like the REA Group’s Eleanor Creagh, can’t really say that one, sorry. But yeah, lifestyle locations such as Queensland are expected to do well in 2022 and a lifestyle location like Tassie is yeah, definitely well, Hemsworth’s on his way, so…
Patrick: Here’s Thor’s hammer…
John: Well, here’s a couple of thoughts too. One of our clients, I sat with him for about an hour and a half before we listed this property, but he was talking about howum his perspective on all this. One of the things he talked about was the reason why he’s selling now is because there was a doubling, so he bought this house like over a decade ago, but it you know, did he had a net benefit of just over 400% growth I think on his particular property when we worked the spreadsheets. And yeah, he just said, “well, the reason why I’m cashing out now is like the values have doubled again, so it’s like now, I’m going to reallocate that money somewhere else,” [Aaron: sure!] So, he was just pure investor in that sake. So that’s probably a common trend at the moment where people… we’re doing a lot of numbers at the moment going, “well, what should I do with it like “should I just cash out and just do something else with the money?” and I suppose, if you do have one or two properties you’re coming into the end of your work life cycle, that well, let’s just cash out in one of these and move to one of the areas that I really want to be in and again, that goes to that lifestyle aspect again.
Aaron: Glenelg’s.
Patrick: Damn straight, great skate park there. Spent many hours there.
Aaron: Pat’s retired with the skateboard and scooter at Glenelg. [laughter]
John: Well, I mean my brother and his friend are pretty close to releasing their gin well and they’re in South Australia, so you’re gonna have… we do need a brand ambassador, Pat. [laughter]
Patrick: I’m your man. [John agrees]
John: So, I guess then, if there is a potential for stock coming in, maybe it could be an instance of investors cashing out because the yields are lower because of you know, you were down as strong as they were once been especially locally, but they’ve had a huge amount of capital growth, maybe they might cash out now and reinvest their money elsewhere which would be just an interesting trend of new properties coming onto the market. [Aaron agrees]
Patrick: At the end of the day, I don’t think we can really say what 2022 is going to look like but we don’t expect that it’s going to be doom and gloom, that’s for sure.
John: No, I mean that idea that all of a sudden the market’s going to crash and everyone’s going to lose all the gains they had over the last several years or I mean, it’s never happened before and I don’t know like cyclically, maybe, it’s probably not going to happen again, you know.
Patrick: It’s not like we’re dealing with the Squid Game’s currency that came and went within a couple of weeks. [laughter]
John: Yeah, exactly.
Aaron: So, just looking forward to 2022, we’ve kind of thought that things are still going to keep growing. Is there any advice out there for people that are looking to get into the market or are kind of sitting not knowing what to do… It’s like what are tyou, as real estate agents, can advice?
Patrick: I think my main advice is don’t give up. I think so many people get disheartened and especially if they tried through 2021 to buy a house, they’re probably at that point where they don’t think it’s possible. I honestly think don’t give up, I think you’re going to see some opportunities arise over the next sort of six months. And it may still mean that you miss out on a few in the early months but I think a few more opportunities will open up and you’ll finally get that place you’ve been searching for.
John: Yeah, it’s awesome. And mine would be don’t try and pick the market, don’t try and be too smart because people, they’re now asking that question like, “oh, is this the wrong time to buy? Is the price too high?” It was like well, just buy to your lifestyle, buy and sell to your lifestyle because I think the idea that–
Patrick: –live in the moment!
John: Yeah yeah, well the thing is if we’re expecting to pick, to try and pick the perfect time to buy and sell, some people are able to do that, I’m certainly not. But like Pat said, if there’s really great opportunities in, you’ve got a bit disillusioned, there will be opportunities coming up. And don’t try and be too smart. Just buy and sell to your lifestyle.
Aaron: Yeah cool, that all sounds very very useful. Thank you once again, boys!
Here at 4one4 Property Co., we pride ourselves on all types of property for all types of people, so anybody out there listening, don’t feel ashamed to pick up the phone or send a silly email if you might kind of think like, “I’m in this position but I don’t know what to do”, reach out, we’re always here to help. I know your kind of big focus of 2022 is going to be kind of giving back and trying to kind of put the community spirit back into real estate.
Patrick: Yeah, now we’re really excited we’ve got some awesome ideas coming live in 2022 based around that as, so you know, watch this space, we’re really ready to get into it.
Aaron: Most definitely! Thank you, boys, once again for jumping back in the studio. It’s a bit weird with the mask but I feel like it might be something that we’ll be doing for quite a while. It’s actually really good for my editing, it makes it very easy. [John agrees] Oh, I’m happy with that. Yeah, so good to have everyone back. Welcome back to a big year for property, big year for 4one4 Property Co., and a huge year for The Property Pod. Thank you once again!
[extro & disclaimer]
You have been listening to The Property Pod, recorded and edited by 4one4 Media House in conjunction with 4one4 Property Co. This podcast is general information only and the thoughts and views expressed are the opinion of our panel and listeners should always seek to use their
own investigation into any topic we discussed to ensure they fully understand their own situation. It does not constitute and should not be relied on as purchasing, selling, financial, or investment advice or recommendations, expressed or implied, and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any agent or investment services. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken on the basis of this information without first seeking qualified and professional advice.
