Episode:	E157
Show Title:	Auctioning Off Development Opportunities
Cast:	Aaron Horne & Patrick Berry
Show Length:	21 minutes 53 seconds

Just Pat and Aaron in the studio this week, waxing lyrical about Auctions and their popularity in Tasmania; the ‘Brighton Foreshore’ and how some data suggest areas of it could be worth over 1 million dollars in the coming years.

Join the fun of The Property Pod once again as the team take you into the world of the Hobart Real Estate Marketplace.

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT

Patrick Berry
I think my favorite thing from the auction was when we all started John’s little stretching campaign at the start. So for those that didn’t attend, John tried to warm the crowd out with a view, you know, stretches of the upper arm ready for auction time.

[intro]

Aaron Horne
All right, guys, welcome back to The Property Pod, your weekly engagement to real estate here in the Hobart marketplace. I’m your host, Aaron Horne, and I am joined by only one superstar of the pod today, Patrick Berry. Welcome to the studio, my friend!

Patrick Berry
Yep. Best. Best of the rest!

Aaron Horne
Oh, yeah. Look, I didn’t want to throw it out there, but I will say the best of the rest is sitting opposite me.

Aaron Horne
I worked out that John is out in the Devonport somewhere in the north…

Patrick Berry
Somewhere there. They just randomly came up yesterday and set off heading up to our road board meeting for the next three days. Paty, see you when I get back.

Aaron Horne
Well, I see. I Heard a rumor that he’s getting media trained for this event. Like he’s got a so he came coming said oh I might get media trained.

Patrick Berry
Said that what they’re doing up there I.

Aaron Horne
Don’t know apparently something like that just so he doesn’t put his foot in it That’s well that’s kind of John’s bread and butter. It’s what he’s put in it. Digging a hole and getting out of it is what he lives.

Patrick Berry
They don’t want him to be on camera reporting on behalf of the Army, I’d say, into his media drain.

Aaron Horne
Well, the funny thing is that therefore, John, is he has a way with words and he has a way of digging holes, getting out of them. So, yes, I can imagine they’re trying to ascertain something out of him. And it’s a president said this, the whole world comes crashing down. But speaking of the way that he can spin words, just across the weekend, I went to my first live auction.

Aaron Horne
I’ve never been to one.

Patrick Berry
It’s funny you say that because you said digging a hole. And that made me think of the auction. Just it was like a development site.

Aaron Horne
Well, yeah. Look, I don’t probably as I drove up to the auction, there was like, a big what is it, Emkay h the trailer that you were borrowing from your mate who does excavation like, Man, these guys are prepared like.

Patrick Berry
We are ready to.

Aaron Horne
Buy the property they’re going to dig at the moment. Like the ox the hammer comes down that we’re breaking. Do tell.

Patrick Berry
You what. For a split second there, when John was doing the auction, I did get the urge to bid.

Aaron Horne
Oh, yes. Did you start scratching your nose and think like, oh, I’m going to rise a little higher.

Patrick Berry
Thinking that seems pretty good value for money.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, it looks like. Yeah. Shout out to all the people that showed up and shout out to Aaron and John for their marketing campaign.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, 45 people turned up to the auction for people. Send me this. So the front yard was just heaving with people. I don’t know.

Aaron Horne
It’s crazy. I kind of pulled up and was like, Oh, I can’t find a park. I didn’t expect this on a road along wasn’t too far from my place. And I thought, I’ll come and grab some happy snaps and some stock footage for the, for the company and around it. And I’m like, Holy moly, there’s people everywhere.

Patrick Berry
Because kind of out of pocket idiots. Let me turn up. We have a giant.

Aaron Horne
Trailer and truck is what it is. So yeah they, they ran the auction John in typical John faction had some interesting sales points. I think there was like 37,000 cats would fit on the property.

Patrick Berry
Something like that or 38 cricket pitches or somebody described the size of the land.

Aaron Horne
I thought he should have mentioned it and half a football stadium, it would it would have fit on there pretty well.

Patrick Berry
So I think my favorite thing from the auction was when we all started John’s little stretching campaign at the start. So for those that didn’t attend, John tried to warm the crowd out with a view, you know, stretches of the upper arm ready for auction time.

Aaron Horne
I did quite enjoy that. That one was was was pretty pretty ripe. The thing I really liked was St Aron Mary doing the kind of work in the crowd and the bidders and stuff way it’s.

Patrick Berry
There for bidders on the day. Yeah. And yeah, watching Mary walk around four and you know just now, you know this is pretty good. You don’t want let this one go over that bar.

Aaron Horne
Yeah yeah. And I would shout out to him for the, for getting amongst it and and kind of get working working the buyers. So yeah. To see them work as a team and try and Yeah. Get the thing over the lawn. I quite enjoyed it. I was like I think I’d let it over to you and said, I feel like I’m in Melbourne.

Aaron Horne
This is.

Patrick Berry
This is legit. Oh, your friend Mark from school was there and he said it felt like a melbourne auction. Yeah, there you go.

Aaron Horne
But even he leaned over and he’s like, What do you reckon man? We could go house. And they said, Boy, I said, I said, I’ve been looking into my mortgage, but I don’t think I could settle on this one.

Patrick Berry
Imagine if you went over so Sarah, about that auction.

Aaron Horne
And I then we went and checked out that house the other day. I found this one and a whole lot of land. So. Yeah, shout out to the to the crew for putting that together. It was a fun little event and something kind of. Yeah, unexpected across my journey in real estate. What it’s been. Well, I don’t why I know we’ve talked about this, but why aren’t auctions as popular here as, like, you know, you hear about the auction results in the mainland every weekend.

Patrick Berry
I think it comes down to population and supply and demand. Yeah, I think if I was to think why auctions work really well in Melbourne, is there such a high volume of people that live there? And so homes are seen as especially in really popular areas like I’m sure Melbourne’s known as auction capital?

Aaron Horne
Exactly.

Patrick Berry
But I could guarantee not every suburb of Melbourne is prone for auction campaigns. Okay, yeah, I think we see it in the media much like we see Australia’s prices are dropping by 5%, we’re not seeing that here in Hobart.

Aaron Horne
But yeah, well this is the same thing with the rental thing like yeah.

Patrick Berry
Rental crisis and how we’re not seeing that here in Hobart. I think we’ve auctions, Melbourne is seen as the capital, but I would, I would guess and I’m correct, if anyone from Melbourne is listening to our real estate agent, feel free to tell me I’m 100% wrong. Yeah, yeah. But I just feel like maybe certain suburbs are popular as far as auctions go, but other suburbs not so much.

Aaron Horne
That actually really interesting stat to look up. I’m sure there’s a way of working out like how many private trading, how many auctions and seeing like a little map. I reckon realestate.com.au would have something.

Patrick Berry
Yeah. So I reckon you’re in the suburbs like, yeah, Hawthorn’s in St Kilda. There’s all of those ones that are sort of that 20 minute drive from the CBD.

Aaron Horne
Everybody’s wanting to get in here. All right, those.

Patrick Berry
Prime for auctions, but I reckon those new build suburbs that are 45 minutes out on the highway.

Aaron Horne
More private. Tradie Yeah, that way.

Patrick Berry
I might be wrong. I’m just guessing.

Aaron Horne
You’re the, you’re the agent, you know, the stuff.

Patrick Berry
I think that’s why down here in Tassie it doesn’t work. Like, you know, you’ve got to have a pretty unique property. If I was just to auction a three bed, two bath property in Glenorchy, yeah, it probably wouldn’t get much traction as far as an auction goes.

Aaron Horne
Well, even though.

Patrick Berry
I have a spinner as something unique about it. Yes.

Aaron Horne
And even in this property, like it was a really great development opportunity. If the developers aren’t looking or like building seems to have come to a standstill. Yep. Despite needing houses being grown everywhere, it’s grown. I just said like, can we just plant a seed in the house? Will grow. Imagine that. Now there’s a there’s a business idea.

Aaron Horne
I’ve got a shark tank with eggs. It’s called a house seed. And what you do is your property in the ground.

Patrick Berry
You’ve stayed on, picked up those fruits that I put in the plastic mold and they grow in.

Aaron Horne
So I get sucked into all those things. I’m like, Oh my goodness, I can make a tomato that looks like a skull.

Patrick Berry
It’s so ridiculous.

Aaron Horne
They get me every time. But yeah, So look, obviously, yeah, you’ve got a rare opportunity for a developer, but yeah, you’ve got to have the right market and you’ve got to have the right people looking. So yeah, totally make sense.

Patrick Berry
Gotcha. No problem.

Aaron Horne
Rubber Just having a man and a motorbike set tell me that it’s going to make me someone like a drug dealer.

Patrick Berry
They did have GTA vibes and.

Aaron Horne
It’s.

Patrick Berry
Built like this.

Aaron Horne
The muscle man.

Patrick Berry
I’ve no idea where we are now.

Aaron Horne
It’s all about development. It’s like, So look, I’m going to jump from development to development.

Patrick Berry
I walk development to development.

Aaron Horne
Well, we were talking about the development of this place is not developers doing anything up there. But I saw an article and I know I’ve seen you, I know I’ve seen you looking at it because I walked past a computer and you were having a little yarn. You know what I’m going to bring out?

Patrick Berry
I do know it’s going to bring out the Brighton foreshore.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, tell me about the Brighton foreshore, because I’ve I’ve seen a very clear body. It said new development, 32 homes or something on the Brighton foreshore. I’m like, so the bloody hell is the Brighton foreshore?

Patrick Berry
Looking at the Mercury comments, I think it was 120 comments and there all basically Brighton inland there is no foreshore so I was trying to knock this one right.

Aaron Horne
Yeah. I was like man, lower. If you can sell that you can sell anything.

Patrick Berry
I look at the mercury, they’re all about clickbait these days are got to convince you to open up the article. But the Mercury is referring to Bridgewater, not because they’re idiots and don’t know the difference between Bridgewater and Brighton. Yeah, Bridgewater falls into the Brighton Municipality. Okay, So, hey, it’s like, say, Mona is England okay? Technically, it’s in Barrow, but it’s still in the Glenorchy city.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, it sounds a little.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, I mean that catchment.

Patrick Berry
I guess that’s how you sort of look at it and it sounds more impressive, I should say. Brighton than Bridgewater in the article. It was.

Aaron Horne
So perplexing. And yet as Pat mentioned, it’s inland for anybody that’s not in the area. So this tiny little town inland and then this foreshore idea, but looking at the plans looks pretty cool.

Patrick Berry
Yeah. So it’s a buffalo two units, I think it’s three bedroom and one bedroom apartments they’re building in this complex offering 53 carparks as well as offsite parking. Yeah. It looks like a really good development and a really good opportunity to get a huge amount of volume of homes.

Aaron Horne
And with the bridge, the Bridgewater Bridge being redeveloped and planned to be finished two years from now, one year from now.

Patrick Berry
I have no idea. 2028 I thought all.

Aaron Horne
Of that falls away. Oh man. But I might.

Patrick Berry
Be way entirely wrong.

Aaron Horne
No, I could be. Well, one of us is wrong. Well, wrong fact check. But with that coming in and that kind of. Yes, speeding up that transition from out of city to inner city could definitely raise prices in that area.

Patrick Berry
You’d expect it would have to like look at rugby compared to what it was ten years. Yeah, that Glebe Hill Estates being built and sort of coming up to the rugby cloud about border has just shifted that whole area as well.

Aaron Horne
Well yeah, it’s got its own Maccas and stuff like that up there now and Yeah. Parks and kind of actually my kids go play there often with the, with the in-laws and I love it and it’s Yeah. A buzzing little.

Patrick Berry
Guy so I think if you look at that as an example of how a suburb can change and become more valuable relatively fast, things like the Bridgewater Bridge, the new shopping center, there’s a new Brighton High School that’s currently under construction. Yes, well, all of those and that’s actually in Brighton, not enough. But all of those things are things that are going to grow that area and improve the value in that area over time.

Aaron Horne
All right.

Patrick Berry
So we get on the Segways today.

Aaron Horne
Now, this is the way I want to You’re talking about prices growing in this area. Yeah. I’m talking about another murky article which we’re going to talk about last, what you’re going to be able to pull the stats up on it for me. But literally it was saying the fastest growing chip. Anyway, the button point on it is a Bridgewater home.

Patrick Berry
Was worth a million, could.

Aaron Horne
Be worth $1,000,000 in five years time.

Patrick Berry
I think that’s what it was. You know, I catch a commercial, I quickly get options.

Aaron Horne
Well while you’re bringing while you’re bringing that up again, it came across the desk of my understanding of it is the amount of growth that’s been happening. This is from prop track, the amount of growth that’s been happening in the past five years. If you were to extrapolate that into the future, homes in Bridgewater could be worth up to $1,000,000.

Patrick Berry
And that’s the argument. Whether or not that is the case, I think there was a similar article not long ago about gauge work as well, but not quite hitting the million dollar mark. So a few different people are looking at these models. And once again, it’s clickbait. Like in the end of the day, yes, someone saying hitting this is Bridgewater worth $1 million.

Aaron Horne
You got to look at it.

Patrick Berry
Know, especially if you’re in the area, you’re going to be like, holy shit.

Aaron Horne
Yeah.

Patrick Berry
But yeah, blue collar areas to go to 1 million by 2028. Future median prices for suburbs revealed. So they’re expecting Bridgewater to be a top performing suburb with a staggering 134% increase in the median sale price.

Aaron Horne
And that so how long across like the.

Patrick Berry
It goes on in this particular article and we will share this I assume in the show notes to exceed a million and get to 1.1 to 4 million with New Norfolk and Primrose Sands expected to hit 1,080,000 as well. So these are some crazy numbers they’re predicting. And you know, in hindsight, you can’t really expect it to happen.

Patrick Berry
But so we have a we.

Aaron Horne
Have a discussion just in our bankable where we saying, look, imagine ten years ago if you had told somebody that you’d be paying 400,000 for a place in Bridgewater.

Patrick Berry
Well, we were talking about this because when I was in 2007, I started selling homes. Yeah, I sold a lot in the Bridgewater area and they were range from 120 to 150, like a really polished home. Like top of the line in Bridgewater was 180 and that was a stupid price for it. Yes. Now you’re getting 480 for some properties in Bridgewater.

Patrick Berry
I sold one week or two ago for 455,000 and Yeah what, ten years.

Aaron Horne
So if you take that.

Patrick Berry
Kind of and that’s not.

Aaron Horne
That’s how they operate it’s not allowed.

Patrick Berry
To project. Yes. So we’ve seen go from 150 to 450 like it’s a ridiculous percentage of growth.

Aaron Horne
And so kind of at the moment what we’re saying with obviously the interest rate rises and inflation and trying to get the economy back into a state of normality, we’re seeing the market kind of dip at this stage. But in a few years time could kick back into gear and then end up with numbers like this making sense.

Patrick Berry
It’ll have to hit that number one day whether or not it’s between now and 2028. Yeah, I don’t think so. You know on a steep Yeah. You have to remember these mainland economists, they’re looking at suburbs right across the country and this solely looking at past performance data and using that performance over a period of time to predict future performance.

Patrick Berry
So where we all know things don’t always work that way. No, no, they’re not taking into account area. What it has to offer are things like that. And they just looking solely on numbers. So we would have to have thought. I would hate to even think how you would fathom prices at that sort of price without some major growth as well.

Aaron Horne
And then I would say I would say like from there, if you were to bring it in, then Glenorchy is going to be worth 1.7.

Patrick Berry
And that was the interesting thing about this article. So I’ve got the graph here and it’s predicting only an 81% growth globally, which was only going to put it at 1,000,001 $1,001,000. So this is the stupid thing. They’re basically saying Bridgewater is going to be worth $120,000 more than Glenorchy. Okay, so anyone who lives in southern Tasmania knows that that’s probably not going to be the case.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, okay. As Waymo services, it’s closer to Hobart, it’s got way a lot more to offer than Bridgewater currently does, so there’s no way a further outlining suburb.

Aaron Horne
Could be worth more be.

Patrick Berry
Worth more than an inland closest suburb to the CBD. Yeah, because if you’ve got the choice between buying Glenorchy, which is a ten minute drive to Hobart or buying in Bridgewater, which is a 30 minute drive to Hobart, who’s paid $125,000 more for Bridgewater over Glenorchy.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, and then you’ve got to think of like the age of a bunch of the properties. Like I guess the only thing that Bridgewater might have over Glenorchy in five years time is that there might be a bunch more new properties because there’s more area to build these new developments.

Patrick Berry
So you’ve got that going for it. It would have to be a lot of new homes and they would because they’ve got to offset the older homes Well, so, you know, if you’ve got 3000 homes in the area, you’d have to build a bucket load building.

Aaron Horne

Patrick Berry
Like I’m all for economists working out things. It’d be interesting to get a different economists like Domain or real estate Dotcom. I think I have five or six economists on their payroll. Yeah, I’ve got track has one, so I’d be interested. Interesting. Not nothing against this guy.

Aaron Horne
Oh no. Look really.

Patrick Berry
Interesting to see.

Aaron Horne
Once the numbers bring it all together.

Patrick Berry
These other economists predicts for some of these suburbs because Yeah, it to me doesn’t seem.

Aaron Horne
Viable. No, look.

Patrick Berry
I think there will be growth there and I think if you are a long term investor other than buying in the area now, you wouldn’t lose money. Yeah, I think Arron Murray here in the office is talking about new financial year bet buying another rental property and he’s got Bridgewater gauge broken his shortlist.

Aaron Horne
Yeah for sure because.

Patrick Berry
He believes there will be growth and I’m not denying there won’t be but I don’t think there’s going to be 4000 34% in growth in that period of time.

Aaron Horne
At some monstrous number.

Patrick Berry
Like Jay-Z. If we saw 50% growth, that would be still a ridiculous price. You’re up 700,000.

Aaron Horne
So that’s $100,000 home in Bridgewater.

Patrick Berry
Hair. So even 50% doesn’t seem at this point feasible. Yeah, but who knows how I look.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, look, the numbers don’t lie. It would be interesting to see what happens.

Patrick Berry
It’s but very.

Aaron Horne
Exciting.

Patrick Berry
The bit that I just can’t get my head around is how this same report hasn’t predicted Glenorchy to increase more than that. Yeah. Yeah. Like I get that they’re saying Glenelg is already higher in values. It therefore it.

Aaron Horne
Doesn’t have a spot across the graph.

Patrick Berry
I understand that, but I still can’t understand how a suburb that’s closer with more features cannot be worth more than an outlying suburb.

Aaron Horne
Yeah, so I guess the way that yeah, you’ve got Glenorchy already as a hub of excitement and things happening like oh, obviously we live in the area, so we’re going to be talking to that sort of thing. And, and Bridgewater is being and growing.

Patrick Berry
Getting there like they have got some really good community events happening out there and they’ve got some really strong drivers out there that are getting, Yeah, I think the ground.

Aaron Horne
I think the winter phase thing, remember last year we had the crew from the Carolina Collective come in and talk up their winter face. I think that’s coming along later this month.

Patrick Berry
And in the Bridgewater community.

Aaron Horne
In the Bridgewater area. Yeah.

Patrick Berry
They also do a really good Youth Week events that we’re always part of as well. So awesome, really good community events happening. But I think the land hockey still just has that a little bit more happening. All right.

Aaron Horne
Well, speaking of happening, think this is funny and kind of the final curtain. I was just on the weekend. Did you head along to that to the North festival, The market?

Patrick Berry
I did. And I froze my head So far out it was cold.

Aaron Horne
But so anyone out there to the north is in its third year of running. It’s run by the crew that the Saint Alby and it’s in Moonah. It’s just along Albert Road. They had a market. I think it started off with like 20 stalls last year was 40 stalls. It was up to about 80 stalls this year. I went along.

Aaron Horne
It was a hive of activity. There was things happening everywhere.

Patrick Berry
So you got there a lot later than I did. I was there at 830, 9:00 and it was a good crowd, but it felt empty. Yeah. Yeah. I saw photos that you took later heaving, so I went at 830, grab some coffee and a breakfast before I went off to BMX race.

Aaron Horne
And had some Philippino breakfast.

Patrick Berry
Yeah, I did. But I also had a toasted sandwich from the toasted sandwich shop and that took nearly 15 minutes to get. I would hate to think by the time you got there how long it was taking to get it toasted said.

Aaron Horne
Wow, wait, wait, try to get donuts. And they were actually all that was. I got about 30 minutes away off just for the fryer to do all the dining. So I said, Oh, Jack, I’m gonna figure I going to ask Graham.

Patrick Berry
We might have to some a Coles or something like that.

Aaron Horne
But that being said, got a coffee from the crew at Sage and Lily. That was delicious. And it was just a cool little event in this harbor. I actually had to explain to Jack. I said, Oh, we’re going to this market. And he said, Supermarket. I said, On on an outdoor market. What? It doesn’t have a roof now.

Aaron Horne
This one doesn’t have a roof. This is out in the open. And you get to walk on the road and knowing how much he loves garbage bins, I got to see every single garbage bin at this event. And don’t you worry, there was no rubbish on the ground. There was piles and piles of rubbish in red beans, green bean, yellow beans.

Aaron Horne
They were all covered. So anybody that needs to know about waste management in in and around Moonah and Glenorchy Jackson it’s actually a man, so don’t you worry about that.

Patrick Berry
Not I think the guys did a great job. I love how this event keeps growing each year and it seems to get bigger and better each year. I’d love to love the fact that it also brings a lot of the local businesses in on it as well. So there’s that nice crossover. A lot of it seems to be things from within the community itself.

Aaron Horne
Yeah. Yeah. No, the crazy bit of it is that it? It’s kind of that little hipster side of Moonah, which ten years ago, well before the final occurred and kind of moved wasn’t hipster, it was kind of more Yeah. Boom market the amount of young people I saw with hip hats.

Patrick Berry
And just keep in mind I think Mon is going to be worth less than Bridgewater in another five years. Well, look.

Aaron Horne
That’s kind.

Patrick Berry
Of I guess.

Aaron Horne
That’s a bit I guess that’s very interesting that that’s that’s where we got very nice. Yeah. Way of popping that together. Yeah.

Patrick Berry
That’s the problem.

Aaron Horne
I think that’s all we got time for today. We don’t have John to kind of spin his wheels and give us time to think about what we’re actually saying. Really? Under the pump? Yeah. So, yeah. Good luck up north. I know you’re doing. You’re in the Miami of Tasmania all of a sudden because you’re your dad’s over in Miami at what’s the event.

Aaron Horne
Is that a real estate event in Miami.

Patrick Berry
Chris. Chris Yeah, I don’t know what the events go.

Aaron Horne
I know he’s over there doing that, so the McGregor boys are out and about in the Miami of their respective areas. Yep. They just learning about real estate and, and getting it done.

Patrick Berry
And hopefully Jack will be back on the bike next month because I’m not getting this.

Aaron Horne
Is not you never know that.

Patrick Berry
That’s I meant to say next weekend.

Aaron Horne
You never know with that guy but you try and he’ll be he’ll come in and it’ll be just like boys and they’ll have to say that and I’ll have to say this, and it’ll be like, Yeah, it’s just a good team effort. We jumped in and I don’t want any individual accolades. It was all just about the team side.

Aaron Horne
Wow. Thanks, Jim. I appreciate that.

Patrick Berry
I can’t wait to see him on the bike next week.

Aaron Horne
Looking forward to it. All right. Thanks, guys. That’s probably about it for another week.

Patrick Berry
Ciao!

Aaron Horne
Bye!

[extro & disclaimer]