| Episode: | E153 |
| Show Title: | Financial Pressure of 2023 & Owning a Home |
| Cast: | Aaron Horne & John McGregor |
| Show Length: | 26 minutes 32 seconds |
John and Aaron are at the desk today to discuss the current state of the housing market in Hobart and the challenges that homeowners may be facing. John explores the impact of rising interest rates on mortgage repayments, and how this has put a number of households under financial stress.
We also look briefly at the rental market in Hobart and how, in some areas, renting has become cheaper than buying. We examine the options available to those who are struggling with mortgage stress and discuss whether selling their property may be a viable solution.
EPISODE TRANSCRIPT
John
If you’re in a situation where you are completely mortgage stressed and then, you know, selling might be an option. We’ve found now that in a lot of areas in Hobart renting is actually cheaper again than it is to buy.
[intro]
Aaron
All right, guys, welcome back to The Property Pod, your weekly engagement into real estate here in the Hobart marketplace. I am your host, Aaron Horne, and I am only joined by one team member today. Our illustrious leader is elsewhere in the globe. But welcome to the show, John McGregor.
John
Hey, mate!
Aaron
How are you?
John
Good, good. Although, as we’ve just soon discovered, like my filing cabinet, my brain is just locked this morning.
Aaron
It’s funny. You’re like, we’re going through things and you’re calling a certain TV show. Like it’s closed. Like, you’re centimetres away from me, like these and that show a band of heroes or, you know, that show money. I’m just like.
John
That billions.
Aaron
Yeah billions of band of brothers. Yeah, well.
John
Even with that with obviously Sam’s got his new Raptor, which is red. It’s a pretty bloody good car and I didn’t realise there’s like a two year wait. Yeah.
Aaron
I didn’t realise that either. Yeah. But I know he’s been waiting for donkey’s to get it. Yeah. But Yeah.
John
No he was, that was 12 months I mean you know oh god help all those that are trying to buy one now.
Aaron
Well that is I guess raptors are a rare breed.
John
Yeah. Yeah. Kind of hard to say which is way like they’re trying to think of redheads names and it’s.
Aaron
Another rare breed.
John
Yeah, yeah. Another ready made baseball is try to think of like couldn’t get Rick Astley out I couldn’t get Jemmy Somerville. I couldn’t get because he’s trying.
Aaron
To he’s Rick Astley a redhead yeah isn’t.
John
A top didn’t look because I was.
Aaron
Trying to be a famous redhead.
John
Rick Astley popped up. I’m like, now, if you get a name after you, after Rick Astley, I don’t think that’s such a bad idea. The other ones that came out with Lindsay Lohan.
Aaron
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Did did did your brother come up?
John
No, not yet.
Aaron
No. Dammit. We’ll get him there. Look at him.
John
It could be a could be lucky. Um, anyway, so look, that’s what I find with my brain. And it’s so funny working with your parents for so long, is it? You see all the mannerisms of where.
Aaron
You picked up all your little traits from?
John
And Dad’s brain must be exactly the same because I liken it to a filing cabinet where, you know, it’s there and it’s like can’t get the cadence to just just trying to.
Aaron
Get it up, just shake it off, turn it off and turn it on again. Like sometimes that is the thing that pays off.
John
Yeah. So anyway but Peter.
Aaron
Yeah, not too bad. Not too bad. I’ve had a few kids at home which has been throwing everything out through the loop, but I did get to watch the Bombers play yesterday and the Anzac Day match. Unfortunately, it was a rout at the end. It was it was a good game. Finally, I think, finally got my little man into thinking that football might be interesting enough.
Aaron
Yeah, he watched for a little bit and he said, Which one do you like that? I said, Oh, the red and the black. But I text. I take some friends to remember back in the day watching it up at Dido’s house and may you and Dido would just turn on tone at the end of the game. I’d text.
Aaron
I said, Man, I wish we were Kieran Colts. I could just beat up Tony right now. That smug bastard it was.
John
He always got beat up.
Aaron
They always got beat up. I don’t know why he came every year. I think he came just for that moment of joy, if they did win.
John
Because even when he looks.
Aaron
Oh, yeah, yeah, no, not a chance.
John
To play.
Aaron
That song yet. And Anzac Day got up for the dawn service and enjoyed that. Yeah, it was a beautiful morning yesterday and yeah, nice to pay respects to all the Anzacs and yeah. So it’s been interesting. Wake up. It’s so funny that you’ve said that you’re you’re finally coming to stop working because I’ve got your shoulders very heavy today because I came in and said, I’m planning anything for the show.
Aaron
It’s all on you. What do you got for me?
John
Well, I immediately the thought that come to mind was the amount of time over the last few months, the amount of properties have just been harder to move. And it’s not even on the for us, but for both clients, the buyers and sellers purchasers, the struggling to get, you know, get their homes. And we had a I’ve got a property at the moment in Destin.
John
It’s, you know, two contracts have fallen through. And the thought was, you know, what did I say it?
Aaron
It was something about property. What do you do when you deal falls over or what do you do?
John
What do you do with the deal fall through.
Aaron
Yeah, that’s it. That’s it. Yeah. Did have a fancy ring to it.
John
Yeah. Couldn’t come up with something. Yeah. So I thought it might be funded. I’m not sure if it’s a fun topic, but you know, there’s, there is sometimes, you know, they’re got to know when to call it quits sometimes and you know, and.
Aaron
When to push forward. Yeah. So what do you do when the deal falls through? Because obviously that’s when having an agent on your side is kind of very advantageous to be like, alright, this deal is worth pushing forward, this one’s not worth following up on. So I kind of run it through a few scenarios.
John
It’s a good way to put it because I think at these markets, your role with working with any kind of professional is essential because, you know, we’ve all got a limited amount of knowledge on a lot of things, but it’s when things get complex is when you need assistance with someone who specialised job. So the I mean to give you an old example, we had a few a few examples actually so many years ago, Paterno worked with a client, Upper Brighton, where he enjoyed the listings because he was friends with their family.
John
And I’d known him for a long time as well.
Aaron
Yeah. So this prior to you guys all working together on the phone for property, Kobani, you’re working for First National Rhythm, McGregor there for and for real estate.
John
And I think we’re going back to January 2013, 2012.
Aaron
Oh, wow. So lucky our young whippersnappers like that still got spiky hair coming out.
John
Of years that we had the exact same suit from White.
Aaron
The $60 special.
John
And I have to say too, like, that looks so much better. It is distorted like to deceive in a so this looks he looks uncomfortable.
Aaron
I do go back to some of the old videos every now and then and look I’m just like that guy just did not look comfortable like it is. It’s not it’s.
John
Not it’s.
Aaron
Not his thing. So shout out to that.
John
What happened, though, is the the guy bought it and had it refinanced to purchase other things. And in the meantime, his is the what we’re able to sell the property for I think was about to 85. Yeah, but what we didn’t know at the time was his loans were 300, so he’d actually used equity in that house and the bank had let you know higher than the value of the home because the market just yeah and what we now I asked better questions I suppose in the process because this is the first I even thought I didn’t even know.
Aaron
That that was a thing that could happen. You kind of just yet were I guess still cutting your teeth and learning a few of the ins and outs. Yeah.
John
I guess. You know, we were too young to have experienced a market where prices had come off their highs as well. So what happened was that when we when we actually secured a contract, the in the Tasmanian contract, the because that he couldn’t pay out the loan for the bank and the when you purchase a property the bank will take out a covenant on your title which just basically says they have a vested interest in it.
John
Yeah. And before they will allow you to release that title they have to be paid out first.
Aaron
Okay. So planning makes.
John
Sense in the, you know, in a in a tacit contract, it refers to the purchaser must or the vendor must provide a good marketable dog up there with the title. I don’t know what that’s worded in other states. Yeah, but what happened was finance was approved, everything was unconditional. And then on his part, he couldn’t actually provide, he couldn’t sell.
John
Yeah. Because the bank wouldn’t release him from.
Aaron
From the.
John
From the property. So it was an interesting one where the buyer was able to complete in this case, but the owner wasn’t.
Aaron
Yeah.
John
And it wasn’t that either party wanted to be able to actually not sell to the bank was it not. Yeah. So the only way that he’d be able to get out of that situation is if the let’s just say there’s just an easy to imagine there was $50,000 difference that had to be made up. And the only way he would be able to get out of that contract is that he’d have to come up with that $50,000 in cash.
Aaron
And basically, yeah, pay off that last part of the debt.
John
So that way the bank could be released. Yeah, well, so in his particular situation, he couldn’t do it. They had to stay. Yeah. And it wasn’t until six or seven years later when the market had changed again, where he was enabled to sell the property he’d like, been able to pay off the debt a bit further and then the house was worth a little bit more.
John
Yeah. And we could finally sell it and then, you know, he could move on.
Aaron
I guess that’s kind of I don’t know if this is so far off where we were going to take this conversation. Is that kind of something that might be happening in this like kind of next little period where a bunch of these fixed term loans that were kind of fixed it, I don’t know, once at 1.8 or something per cent and something I think like you said before, you’ll pay only 6% on last time.
John
Because we tried to look it for before it gets refinanced. The models adjusted to oldest are two and a half I think. And then they went basically gave me the most expensive product they basically have. Yeah. With, you know without that just automatic transfers so they weren’t great yet the fixed deal now give you the most expensive product we have like which is like six and a half per cent.
John
Yeah. Yeah. And you know you now in speaking with the broker I’ll be able to get it to about five. But you’re right, like, I mean think about the difference in yours, you know. What’s that? Oh, well, I’m just.
Aaron
Yeah, I would have no idea how to, how we were, you know, trying to balance the books at the moment and try and keep in front of that and easily know that this is going to be the number for the last few years. This is how much we’re paying off our repayments. Hmm. So are we are we getting close to this point where there’s going to be all this stress on people and they’re going to be selling?
Aaron
But like I know we’ve talked hardship enough. I’m way off base where you were talking about this, this other guy who’s selling for some reason that he’s got to get rid of his place. He’s $50,000 short in our example. Yep. Is that something that we could be saying in a few months time?
John
It seems that way. I think the the talking about now with the I can’t remember what it’s like a mortgage trap. It’s like a mortgage strangle they’ve got a fancy word. Yeah. The reality is, though, is the people have purchased to their highest capacity at the time and then the, you know, the cost of they’ve gone from these really appealing interest rates to really high.
John
Yeah which is that’s a they it’s going to really put on the huge stress on the household because if all of a sudden your expenses go up by 12 grand a year, for example, a thousand bucks. Yeah. And your wages haven’t changed. It’s big.
Aaron
That’s huge.
John
And it could be more on people that purchased houses like worth a million bucks, which is average if you’re in Sydney.
Aaron
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Like in our little market it’s, you know, a 2% on my $300,000 loan is completely different to pumping out 5% on $1,000,000 loan. That’s it. It’s yeah.
John
Well this is where the, the, I suppose the concern came because they, one of the articles that they’re talking about, they always had that buffer. So even it has like we just said, two and a half percent. They’re assessing me on four and a half.
Aaron
Yeah.
John
But I suppose those, those buffers didn’t anticipate that they were going to go a 2% above even their original buffer. Yes. And so what’s happening is for people is they are they’ve got into themselves into a loan at that lower rate, but because now they they still have got that buffer applied even now. Is it now like imagine you’re they’re trying to refinance to 5% but they’re assessing you at seven and then your income and your expenses and nothing, nothing like that’s changed.
John
And so they’re actually not able to refinance and that’s the struggle that a lot of people are having.
Aaron
Yeah. So I guess like going back to like these deals falling over, is this something that you’re going to have to navigate with? Kind of, yeah. Talking with brokers more and spending more time trying to get into the nitty gritty of of things. Like you’ve said, you had was at one point destined or something’s fallen over two times.
Aaron
Is that got something to do with?
John
Well, that one’s a completely different story. The one that was interesting for two different reasons, actually. The third example just recently was chatting with the broker and he mentioned that the there was a couple that were attempting to purchase a home with another one and they didn’t, they weren’t able to get it. Yeah. And the main reason was is that due to mortgage stress but they hadn’t been given the option of bridging finance, which enables you to bridge the gap between two properties.
John
Okay. For, you know, a short period of time while one sells or settles, you know, you’ve got to finance the other one.
Aaron
I guess, to say you’ve got like a four day window or maybe even longer. You’ve kind of got a slush fund.
John
Yeah, well, no, it’s like, okay, I’m in my house at the moment. I want to buy another one. I’m probably going to really bastardise this.
Aaron
We’ve we’ve already established that your filing cabinets running low to that level anyway.
John
But your theory though is like, okay, I can still buy and secure that home. And then you’ve got the financed across both properties while this one starts those it’s different than subject to sale that’s going to everything falls through at the same time. Yeah, I’m essentially paying for two properties for a brief period of time and so that so the thing is it’s only on a limited time frame because you couldn’t do.
John
Yes, you couldn’t.
Aaron
Yet constantly be.
John
They, but they weren’t even given that that advice. Okay. So, you know, I had another young couple where one of the brokers said, look, we can get you a proof of finance, but it’s good then then it’ll cost you some money. And he said, well, that’s just straight up a legal can’t.
Aaron
So so that again he he said that they’d have to pay to be preapproved.
John
Yeah. Yeah, it was not not, not our broker but another. And he said, well, I asked about it. I thought, that sounds a bit sketchy. Yeah. He said, Yeah, that’s just straight up. A Legal Right Against Lending Act. Yeah, yeah. So these two, this young couple were sitting there going, Oh, well, we’re not quite know what we want yet because we don’t we don’t want us to sit there and have to pay a fee just to, you know.
John
Yeah.
Aaron
To be told that we’re eligible.
John
I don’t know. I think I said, well, look, let me ask a question because that sounds a bit sketchy. Yeah, but in their case, like they were proceeding further because they they were confident in what they did want to have to pay a fee just to get pre-approved, not knowing that that’s completely legal and they’re getting stitched by the by unscrupulous.
Aaron
Yeah. Sounds very dodgy.
John
Yeah. Yeah.
Aaron
We should do A Current Affair.
John
Oh, yeah. We’ll fill them secretly. Where he’s walking slowly in grey.
Aaron
Exactly. Liquid. Then something comes up at the bottom just saying like scam on.
John
Things that big stage. Yeah. Well so yeah. With, with like so with a financial, financial situation. Back to your point, there’s a lot of people that the valuations that come in at very high, let’s just say the valuation for a loan on a house was $700,000 short. So they were able to borrow up, borrow up to 700,000. But now the resale value is 650.
John
Yep. So now not only are they paying interest rates on a, you know, upon a house that borrowed up to $700,000 for but they can’t sell it for the same value at which they borrowed it. Sure. So what’s happening then is when they go to refinance, they have an improved their like their financial situation in terms of expenses because they’ve all gone up.
John
Yeah. They may not have increased their income. Now the house is worth less and the interest rates are higher. And so the, the problem is when they go to refinance after getting switched on going off fixed. Yeah. They can’t renegotiate a bit of yeah.
Aaron
It sounds like the perfect storm.
John
Of it so it’s real. It’s going to be really, really, really interesting. So what the what they’re making comments on when I say that it was just advice to the Reserve Bank inside of the lending practises is that. Well okay they, they all of a sudden these guys are already paying 6% so they’re getting hammered and now they want to refinance.
John
But your stress testing them to eight and a half per cent.
Aaron
Yeah. Likes to have their buffers held on water.
John
How can they bridge that gap in that respect?
Aaron
Yeah, sure.
John
So that’s where, you know, having, you know, I suppose speaking to a broker who’s going to try and win that type of bet. It’s like, well, you need someone who’s going to try and give you options.
Aaron
This is Dave McGinness, that Money Quest question.
John
Because he called me on the public holidays. Thank you. Yeah, he’s been working for me. Um, so this the only, I suppose, when it comes to buying and selling them is a what, what do you do in those scenarios now that’s a really hard one that’s going to be to answer in very tough specifics. Yeah. Because if your if you’re in a situation where you are completely mortgage stress and then, you know, selling might be an option.
John
We’ve found now that in a lot of areas and Hobart renting is actually cheaper again than it is to buy, whereas that was sort of in reverse for now.
Aaron
Yeah. So yeah, just like kind of the last few years that seem to be the reverse of the thing where it was like you’re paying off, your mortgage is cheaper then then your rental has that switched on it like.
John
In certain areas. Yeah.
Aaron
Okay.
John
So the terms just in terms of pure numbers. Yeah, um, I know for a fact with the one that we bought for a friend just to live in what she pays or rent doesn’t it isn’t anywhere close to paying the were mortgage backed okay.
Aaron
For sure.
John
But she needed to play so we helped out. So I think. Well ma’am then I would take it.
Aaron
I guess I just wasn’t, I wasn’t aware of that because I guess. Yeah. Is that based on the mortgage repayments now are higher because of the interest rates that that’s blown out that idea of because obviously when I purchased it was cheaper than renting because I could get such a low interest rate now that it’s going to blow out to say 5% it’s going to push my I’m so bad with I’m example when I was but say it was $300 going to push that out to 450 once all those things bump up is that how the rental prices are now just that little bit lower.
John
Well I heard this is a anecdotal example from a dad back in the late nineties where they’d experienced an adjustment of 10% on house values. Yep. And no one was actually wanting to purchase property in Hobart at the time and they had a massive influx of properties come, come back onto the rental market because the, because they couldn’t sell, no one was buying and it wasn’t till the interest rates were reduced in the early 2000s will we experience what they called the first first modern day.
John
But yeah, the prices went up 50% locally and then all those rental properties that people were hanging onto previously over there like Ducks Week. Now I can finally sell them. Yeah. Yeah. So we, the men of transactions were at least double back then, even what we had last. But in terms of volume of actual transactions. Yeah. Um, but this time I suppose what’s different is, uh, it may not happen the same because people have got alternatives and maybe, you know, will, will we see people moving sideways and doing Airbnb?
John
Yeah, for sure. But doing sideways or putting those properties into the rental market, you know, especially if they can’t see it. So I mean when I, when it happened to me, when I had my first unit, I was I had I think only time I was by the time everything was, you know, had other debts and then my had my house and that the interest rates got to eight and a half per cent on that one obviously was much less a value.
Aaron
Yeah. Yeah.
John
And then I have a mate staying with me, but the only thing I had to live off was pretty much the $75 in cash he was paying me. The rest of it was I was just I was dead in the water. I was going backwards.
Aaron
Yeah, well, I guess, like, that’s kind of where it’s getting tricky. And I know we haven’t really covered off on a, on a bunch of that. We’ve maybe spoken about cost of living just referring around, I guess at the start of the show we’re talking about when a deal doesn’t go through. Yeah, did we cover it off? Not really, no.
Aaron
Know we talked about a lot of stuff, but not really what we said we’ve done.
John
We talked a lot, but said very little.
Aaron
Yeah. Oh yeah. If you’ve made it this far in the shop, you shout out, tell you what, just before we sign off. What, what can you do if you’re trying to purchase a property and this is not what we. All right, well, what can you do if you don’t want the property and oh, if you’re selling and it does seem to fall through, just give us some some button point so that we can say that we covered up on that.
Aaron
Oh.
John
My, my my quick checklist would be first spoke to a broker and it might not be your current bank, especially if they’re just trying to push a specific product. Yeah. Go seek an independent broker then who’s, you know, who’s capable of trying to give you some alternative options like that. Secondly, if you are considering if you are in a bad situation, getting an agent, you know, okay, what are your options?
John
Can we sell, can we buy, can we can release that? I suppose this is about if you’re owning. Yeah, can you rent it out? Can we find alternative, you know, um, so and then and so I’ve got like a, like an actual breakdown of change over cost. So it’s like, okay, this is where you’re at. This is what you could be, and this is where it’s going to be.
John
You know, once, once it’s ended someplace, then it’s about reassessing your financial situation now and then. I’m not going to worry about giving unsolicited advice around budgeting. I think people can make their own call on that. But then the other thing, too, is, you know, if you can’t refinance and you have to and you have to sell, they probably to best your best buddies to go.
John
Okay. Giving you bigger options. Yeah. And then I suppose how they, how you navigate that through like okay do you get someone to rent, you know, even just one rooming house.
Aaron
Yeah.
John
If you’ve got a four bedroom house, it’s like, oh, we’ve got this spare room that I just kept a few little bit of chunks in one place that for 200 bucks a week. Yeah.
Aaron
So we looked into some different options but.
John
Find ways to I suppose adapt to adapt your home that can enable you to get a little bit more, you know, get more value out of it. Um, and then when you’re buying that, the other thing too is, um, I know they’re getting a lot the, their assessment tools are a lot better than they used to be about.
John
A quick little disclosure on your expenses on a piece of paper.
Aaron
Yeah, yeah. How much do you spend on how much you spend with refinancing?
John
Now look at linked to my bank accounts. So the just got the full disclosure. Yep, exactly. Which is, you know, oh it is what it is.
Aaron
It’s probably better that they have the exact numbers than you say. Like I think I spend 200 bucks on takeaway a month and then you’re like, Oh crap, I spent 900 bucks on takeaway a month. Like, I’m so far off my mark, but oh yeah, not, not that much every time I do it.
John
Well that’s I guess the, the two options of either saving more money or using guarantors. I know we’ve talked about that kind of stuff before, but yeah, one thing I’d probably, you know, look at again is this sounds awful. Readjust your expectations. Yeah if you if purchased things are rather you really want to go down and the good thing I suppose is if you’re returning with confidence knowing that the interest rates aren’t going to double again, you’ve already planned where other people are getting hit by.
Aaron
Yeah. Thinking that yep. I was in a really good spot and now I’m blown out of the water. You think now I’m safe where I’m at, it’s not going to extend out to 12% or something.
John
That’s it. You know, as local locally, I mean market, it’s definitely stabilised. It’s the good thing is because there’s no longer that fear of missing out at least have to be a little bit patient, allow yourself to find that little bit of a better deal else of to be a little bit more confidence in a negotiation. Yeah. You know, just yesterday we caught up with a couple who, you know, put in an offer well well below that, well below asking price.
John
That’s fine that’s that’s they want to move will slowly bring a deal together but obviously it’s going to take is their very patient very savvy so it’ll take a little bit of time and you know, if you are doing that, you’re not confident. Again, take advice from someone who can help you negotiate. Yeah. So at least in on if you are purchasing, it’s always an encouragement to try and secure the property at a, you know, as a better deal you can.
John
That’s absolutely what something you should search to do but try and ensure that you still don’t stretch yourself.
Aaron
Yes.
John
Okay. Just because you can borrow up to that limit. Okay. This all of a sudden, you know, you go, that’s really disappointing because if we could just get a little bit more.
Aaron
Yeah, if I could just if I maybe I could get an extra 20 K on top of that, like just to like have a little play with.
John
Yeah. But the only thing is though is it. Yes. You’ve been able to get that. But now what happens when something goes wrong. Exactly. And I guess that’s really unfortunate because, you know, if I’m not careful, I could absolutely get myself in that same situation with our two properties now. Yeah. That we did for family. Um, that the, you know, it got to ensure that you’ve got a buffer worst case scenario because what we may actually say, what happened to my friend many, many moons ago where people were borrowing above what their real capacity of that house is?
John
Yeah, things have adjusted and now they’re trapped, you know. So trying to ensure that, you know, get all those advice correct at the start so that worst case scenario, you won’t get trapped down the road.
Aaron
Yeah. So the biggest the biggest takeaway is we talked around a lot of stuff, but talk to an expert or talk to somebody and they don’t listen to this. You can talk to you can talk to people across got to think to talk to people like the people that got in trouble or got out that have to pay for the pre-approval doesn’t cost the thing just to have a conversation and find out your options.
Aaron
So yeah, reach out to some people and find out more from them. Yeah, yeah. Obviously some airy fairy conversations in a podcast studio. Don’t go off those. So once you’ve got the info in front of you, there’s definitely ways of finding out the the correct means. And just think about it. He’s got this whole show on his shoulders today.
Aaron
He’s got he’s got a broken. Yeah. The filing cabinet at the.
John
Forward chemist jammed. I reckon we would have had more success had we talked about Band of brothers.
Aaron
Yeah. And I would have, I would have enjoyed that a thousand times more than just play like I’m flattering him in. But yes, thank you for thank you for the show. Hopefully Pat will come back and save us next week. Actually not. He won’t be back next week. He’ll be still in the Philippines. This boredom all ramblings of the idiots.
Aaron
All right.
[extro & disclaimer]
